100 year bear markets and unicorns.

Some days humanity is awesome other times it is not. This is an abomination:

“Yes, Prechter’s a permabear, But his success as a forecaster dates back to 1978 when he predicted a “raging bull market of the 1980s.” Nobody believed him back then either. Later he was called “Guru of the Decade” by the Financial News Network. The title “Dr. Boom” would have fit too.”

Here is how the game works in predictions.  Make a lot of them, make crazy ones, make long ones, short ones, just make a lot of them.  Eventually you are are right.  The difference between predictions is that predictions only cost you credibility. In a time where click views are king and accountability and attention spans are low there is not much risk.  It is crazy that someone can get it right one time and somehow gain credibility. Mind blowing.

Moreover, early in 2013 Prechter’s Elliott Wave team said that “if a decline is ahead, it could be much more severe than the one in 2007-09.” Another collapse from 14,164 to 6,440 may be the one that sinks us into a painful bear market, whether a few years or a hundred.

You have to be vague and keep your options open, make sure you use the words “IF”.  Also you need a team to evaluate Elliott Wave?  2008 was sh*t hitting the fan, it was systemic.  And although I do see other scenarios in which things could be similar Elliott Wave isn’t going to predict it.

I do not blame Prechter as he didn’t write the article but come on.  He can’t be too happy about this press. At least for the writer, no such thing as bad publicity I guess.

Those that know history are doomed to think it is repeating.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-dangers-set-to-trip-a-100-year-bear-market-2013-02-20 (You better copy and paste this because I am not linking to it)

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