Jeffrey Carter of Pointsandfigures has a post out today breaking down the WSJ reporting of the lag between confirmation reporting. His main argument is that these millisecond delays in the confirmation to the trader versus to the public create an advantage. In simple terms the trader knows about their fills before the market does. He goes… Continue Reading
Author Archives: Eli Radke
100% correlation means 0% causation.
If a correlation never changes there is very little chance there is any causation. Finding two things that are trending the same way isn’t that hard. Which is harder? Finding causation or assuming there is one. Which is more destructive? We would really appreciate your feedback, if you like, hate, or think we are full… Continue Reading
Markets aren’t manipulated, people are.
Whenever I see bars like today when the AP hacking took place, I know that some people got taken out or were at least seriously maimed. It is the unfortunate part of this job. One of many bad things. But I also know that some people made money. (I was away from my desk.) Here… Continue Reading
How to explain to a 7 year old what makes trading difficult.
This conversation started because I was sitting at the table a few weekends ago and my nephew asked me what I was doing, I said I was doing homework. ”You are in school?” “Not in the same way you are but I still have to do homework.” “Do you have a teacher?” ”Yes it is… Continue Reading
Bad News Bears
Bad news. Rally. Good news. Rally. Down on the open. Rally. Down yesterday. Rally, tomorrow. When does it end? When it stops paying, when self preservation is more important than net worth, when posts like the ones below reach peak bullish slants. Gasoline, food prices subdue consumer inflation. (via Reuters) “On balance, this reflects the soft… Continue Reading
Good or bad, it does not last forever.
Originally appeared in October 2011. If you have read the blog for awhile you know the story about the first day I sat down at my own machine. I was placing a few trades a week though a friend with success. It was limited to whether I found a good setup and he was in a… Continue Reading
10 ways to hide you are a trader.
One of the best part of trading is the lifestyle. Like all of trading there is risk on the other side of reward. To mitigate some of these risk you have hide your “job” as a trader. Here is how to do it: (the idea for this post was started from a conversation with @lefthash… Continue Reading
Where the S&P 500 is going.
Quick overview. S&P 500 Cash cannot be traded it is a calculation of the stocks in the S&P 500 weighted based on Market Capitalization. You can see the changes in the companies listed here (yes I linked to wikipedia, something I am not proud of). Many people use the S&P 500 Cash against S&P 500 futures. What generally… Continue Reading
Distribution of Financial Information
Howard Lindzon came out with a post this weekend, I Would Like to Hire a Few Lobbyists…and Thanks Stevie Cohen for This Tipping Point in Securities Law Reform!. There is definitely a sarcastic/sad tone to the article. The people have always moved faster than the ability of regulators to catch up. They are still working on social… Continue Reading
On anecdotal evidence
Cracks happen and dams are built everyday in our investment/trading thesis. It is job to understand our bias and add it to the equation. Yes, in a perfect world, we wouldn’t have bias but we are not in a perfect world. The most popular method to attain confirmation bias is through anecdotal evidence. I am… Continue Reading
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