Bad News Bears

Bad news. Rally.  Good news.  Rally.  Down on the open. Rally.  Down yesterday. Rally, tomorrow. When does it end?  When it stops paying, when self preservation is more important than net worth, when posts like the ones below reach peak bullish slants.

Gasoline, food prices subdue consumer inflation. (via Reuters)

“On balance, this reflects the soft demand environment out there. There is not a lot of price pressure. That’s good for the Fed to maintain its accommodative policy,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Housing Starts in U.S. Surge on Demand for Multifamily Units. (via Bloomberg)

“Work began on fewer single-family houses last month, adding to evidence that part of the market is pausing.”

Home Prices Surged 15% in March; Sales Barely Above 2012. (via Refin)

“You know that inventory is in sad shape when it feels like good news to have a month where the number of listings on the market stays flat.”

The way I consume major financial news publications is if they get enough retweets or come up on the linkfests I subscribe to,  I read them.  There is so much to read and it is generally too big picture for me so that is how I filter them. Those were a few stories that had bullish headlines and content was bearish to at least mixed.  Headline writers are starting to capitulate.  All these headlines came after a big down day and I anticipated a bearish slant.  Bad day + mixed news = bearish headlines but that didn’t happen.  No one likes a show boater and so despite the greatest rally ever it has rarely been reported as such.  Greatest rally with the lowest participation.  I still doubt participation is high but it is being reported as it is higher.

If you don’t have the money to move a market the second best way is with a compelling story.  A self fulfilling prophecy and with news it is usually 6-12 months behind.  Eventually we all look at prices it just takes headline writers a lot longer.

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Good or bad, it does not last forever.

Originally appeared in October 2011. If you have read the blog for awhile you know the story about the first day...