I have seen economic releases play out every which way. I see economic releases as a way to get things done sometimes with logic and sometimes none. With that being said, there is important information that can be learned from it.
As of 6 AM CT, the ES is trading around 1258, right near the highs after a nice rally overnight. If I got short yesterday I would not have wanted to see anything above 1250 trade and a likely place for a stop. If we are going to rally much further it needs to be fueled by new buyers and/or shorts puking. If you are long from lower I do not think it makes sense to add to your position. If you are adding to your position you have to believe the market is changing and we are going to see a double breakout. The recent lows were a break out lower and anything in the 1300’s I would consider a breakout. We have not seen that happen all year. The chasers could be getting in now too, if they have anymore money left.
So back to the NFP, although I occasionally participate in NFP prediction it is more than likely a waste of time. The market cares more about continuing their agenda than the number. They will spin it whatever way they need. Lets face it, the revisions have been cartoonish. I do think the number will beat estimates but what is more interesting to see is what the market does it. Will it be used to get back below 1250 or hold 1260 (the market magnet) and stick in the range or will it cause a breakout to 1289.25 and eventually the 13 handle. Those are the two possibilities I see, I would be surprised if they do not use this number to reveal their next move.
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