Thinking Rationally

If you have not gotten a chance already, you should read “The Science of Fear” by Daniel Gardner.  It has been helpful to me in trading and life.  It forces you to look at information objectively.  It is kind of a mind fuck, to be honest, because the author is telling you to question everything and you are stuck wondering if you should be questioning the author.

The reason you and I arrive at a different decision, assuming we have the same information and view the information the same, is because we are willing to give up different things. Our values. I 100% understand that.

The distance between path A and path B is usually not very far.  When the distance appears great it is because we are not looking at the same information through the same eyes.

Next time you are thinking your choice is so obviously superior make sure you are looking at the same facts, objectively.

You are probably wondering why this is on my mind.  I cannot fathom what it would be like to be a family in Japan right now.  At the same time I see every news and tweet about the dangers of nuclear energy.  I understand the focus on survival.  But it is times like this that fear hurts us.  We overcompensate.  I see this happen to traders all of the time and worse, in life.

I don’t know much about operating nuclear energy reactors but there are 104 in the US and if there is different information we should change.  If the facts have not changed, the reality of the risks should not change us.

I am just getting around to reading and at the risk of having confirmation bias has similar things to say.


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