On anecdotal evidence

Cracks happen and dams are built everyday in our investment/trading thesis.  It is job to understand our bias and add it to the equation.  Yes, in a perfect world, we wouldn’t have bias but we are not in a perfect world.

The most popular method to attain confirmation bias is through anecdotal evidence.  I am not saying that it is inherently bad.  But our desire to be the first; newest phone, newest car, newest market changing information can lead us down the wrong path.  A tiresome path.

Always remember the first person up the hill gets arrows and if there are no arrows the hill probably isn’t worth fighting for.  It is not our ability to see what is happening but the ability to make others see it too and if you don’t have confirmation bias the dots might not connect for awhile.  But you get paid to take risks but don’t know let the arrows kill you.

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