Markets aren’t manipulated, people are.

Whenever I see bars like today when the AP hacking took place, I know that some people got taken out or were at least seriously maimed. It is the unfortunate part of this job.  One of many bad things.  But I also know that some people made money. (I was away from my desk.) HereContinue Reading

How to explain to a 7 year old what makes trading difficult.

This conversation started because I was sitting at the table a few weekends ago and my nephew asked me what I was doing, I said I was doing homework.  “You are in school?” “Not in the same way you are but I still have to do homework.” “Do you have a teacher?”  “Yes it isContinue Reading

Bad News Bears

Bad news. Rally.  Good news.  Rally.  Down on the open. Rally.  Down yesterday. Rally, tomorrow. When does it end?  When it stops paying, when self preservation is more important than net worth, when posts like the ones below reach peak bullish slants. Gasoline, food prices subdue consumer inflation. (via Reuters) “On balance, this reflects the softContinue Reading

Good or bad, it does not last forever.

Originally appeared in October 2011. If you have read the blog for awhile you know the story about the first day I sat down at my own machine.  I was placing a few trades a week though a friend with success.  It was limited to whether I found a good setup and he was in aContinue Reading

10 ways to hide you are a trader.

One of the best part of trading is the lifestyle. Like all of trading there is risk on the other side of reward.  To mitigate some of these risk you have hide your “job” as a trader. Here is how to do it: (the idea for this post was started from a conversation with @lefthashContinue Reading

Where the S&P 500 is going.

Quick overview. S&P 500 Cash cannot be traded it is a calculation of the stocks in the S&P 500 weighted based on Market Capitalization. You can see the changes in the companies listed here (yes I linked to wikipedia, something I am not proud of). Many people use the S&P 500 Cash against S&P 500 futures.  What generallyContinue Reading

Distribution of Financial Information

Howard Lindzon came out with a post this weekend, I Would Like to Hire a Few Lobbyists…and Thanks Stevie Cohen for This Tipping Point in Securities Law Reform!. There is definitely a sarcastic/sad tone to the article.  The people have always moved faster than the ability of regulators to catch up.  They are still working on socialContinue Reading

On anecdotal evidence

Cracks happen and dams are built everyday in our investment/trading thesis.  It is job to understand our bias and add it to the equation.  Yes, in a perfect world, we wouldn’t have bias but we are not in a perfect world. The most popular method to attain confirmation bias is through anecdotal evidence.  I amContinue Reading

Predictions: Where the most popular financial press will be in 2014.

Among my family and close circle of friends there is no greater honor than to be made fun of.  With that being said, my predictions for 2014: self-evident.org– After pressure from readers, they are forced to realize that an organization needs more than two people.  They change their name to ironicallyself-evident.org.  Munilass only covers bondContinue Reading

Three levels of trading success.

This is post originally appeared in early 2012. An important distinction in trading success and success in general is understanding the difference between a milestone and a goal.  Where do you want to go and what are you going to do to get there?  The best people and teams I have been around always wereContinue Reading

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