Tag Archives: participants

It is the participants, stupid.

Joshua Brown wrote today, FIRE IN THE DISCO. Go read it if you haven’t, I’ll wait. Welcome back.  I am by no means a fundamental analysis but what I do know is that participation matters.  The hard part about any type of analysis is not how people will react.  It is about who is participating.Continue Reading

Don’t let data f@#% you.

Data and information are like air.  It is everywhere and we need it to survive.  Just like in every breathe we take we have a chance to do what we want with it, data is no different.  Anyone can manipulate any data and make it say whatever they want.  The tools we have today toContinue Reading

Examining the latest viral chart: What if bonds and stocks are both right?

It is often noted that bond people are the smart ones compared to stock people.  I am guessing that is at least in part because they are “usually” right.  And by right I mean have more money, less competition, and time horizons are a trading lifetime. Think Buffet. So there are few things that IContinue Reading

About the impending economic collapse.

Eric Jackson wrote about the financial world becoming “Bubbleheads”, read it here. In that article he takes an excerpt from an interview with Micheal Burry, one of those that predicted the housing bubble popping. Mr. Burry brings up the concept of a timer. First let me get something off chest and clarify my point ofContinue Reading

Where to find profit.

The market is a curator of information.  It does not always tell the story at the same pace that it gets the information.  This is partly because, depending on the participants, different parts of the story makes sense or are not important, yet.  It may be that the market does not care about that inputContinue Reading

The basics of quad and triple witching.

“Witching” occurs when contracts expire.  The contracts that expire include: futures, single stock futures, stock index options, and single stock futures. Witching occurs on the 3rd Friday (non holiday) of March, June, September, and December. These times of year bring in extra participants and can alter the dynamics of the market (I can only speak fromContinue Reading

Risk/reward ratio is bullsh$t.

When people ask what is a good risk reward ratio, I think they ask for the wrong reasons.  Risk/reward is not about an expected outcome it is about trade selection or trade elimination. By only taking a trade with an X for 1 ratio you are eliminating trades.  By only taking these types of tradesContinue Reading

What the market promises us, a reminder.

This is not going to endure me to my fellow traders but I think it is important that we all are reminded what the market promises us. My twitter and RSS feed is blowing up with a disturbing number of comment and posts about the market being broken. Market Promises: It promises a playing field,Continue Reading

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