Tag Archives: participation

In a market that rises, the price increases.

I am about to rant. So the title of the post is “In a market that rises, the price increases.”  You probably think that is the most obvious statement of all time.  I agree. Let’s look at another sentence. “When X happens, the price increases.” Let’s construct a sentence that is more “believable” , “WhenContinue Reading

It is the participants, stupid.

Joshua Brown wrote today, FIRE IN THE DISCO. Go read it if you haven’t, I’ll wait. Welcome back.  I am by no means a fundamental analysis but what I do know is that participation matters.  The hard part about any type of analysis is not how people will react.  It is about who is participating.Continue Reading

5 things we should all be able to agree on.

I have not written much lately because I have been frustrated by what I am reading and the lack of clear understanding and opinions dressed up as facts.  I do not mind bias at all, it is important.  But to communicate something as fact is both dangerous to the reader (human nature to want aContinue Reading

Predictions are failing at a rapid pace.

I do not envy the job of the economen (economist with the same track record as weathermen), but they still put themselves out there so we should learn something from them.  I do have some respect or empathy for them, they are proven wrong and wrong again but they still keep coming back.  Being aroundContinue Reading

When will this rally end?

What everyone always forgets is that information does nothing to the market, orders do.  Information can and does cause action but information is about the story.  What does the market believe or what can you get the market to believe.  Show a little bit in “your” direction and viola bias can be confirmed. Early experience.Continue Reading

Waiting for the market to make sense.

There seems to be an ever increasing chatter about how the market is going to revert to the mean or it is broken or it is undervalued.  Whatever it is let me remind you of two important ideas that are found in about any book you will ever read around finance and investing. The marketContinue Reading

When participants change, reaction does too.

I realize this post is about three years too late or at least two years but I see some people making the same mistakes and it is good thing to think about any way. As a general rule, I do not talk about current market conditions because if you want to know our thoughts you canContinue Reading

Signs confirmation bias is becoming a problem.

As a reminder confirmation bias is the tendency to like or seek out information that confirms what you believe. The reason confirmation bias is so dangerous in trading is that it can cause you to lose twice. By the time price or loss has proven your belief as wrong, it may force your belief into the otherContinue Reading

The services and materials provided should not to be interpreted as investment advice, an endorsement of any security, commodity, future, or personal investment advice, or an offer to buy, sell, hold or trade futures, options or commodity interests or a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or trade futures, options or commodity interests. You assume the entire cost and risk of investing and are solely responsible for any and all gains and losses, financial, emotional, or otherwise, experienced, suffered, or incurred by you.