Tag Archives: thesis

On anecdotal evidence

Cracks happen and dams are built everyday in our investment/trading thesis.  It is job to understand our bias and add it to the equation.  Yes, in a perfect world, we wouldn’t have bias but we are not in a perfect world. The most popular method to attain confirmation bias is through anecdotal evidence.  I amContinue Reading

The market inside the market.

I remember the first time I found the trading holy grail.  I couldn’t sleep.  It was software that read patterns.  I was going to be the richest person in the world.  I fell into one of the very few equations throughout the history of finance that is pure, new to trading = knew everything.  IContinue Reading

Predictions are failing at a rapid pace.

I do not envy the job of the economen (economist with the same track record as weathermen), but they still put themselves out there so we should learn something from them.  I do have some respect or empathy for them, they are proven wrong and wrong again but they still keep coming back.  Being aroundContinue Reading

NFP and the epidemic that has plagued finance.

People seem to get data wrong, they assume it happens in a vacuum.  They confuse causation with correlation.  They discount living through the experience. It is the difference between watching the movie and reading the critique.  As a market participant your goal is to determine what the market thinks is most important and apply risk management to it.Continue Reading

Flipping a position vs flipping a thesis.

We have all been stopped out and then flip (reverse) our position only to get stopped out again. Two things help me.  One I need to separate myself immediately.  If I am not at my screens I can’t trade.  No one likes to get stopped out and that most certainly changes the way I viewContinue Reading

Why simulating trading is different from live trading.

Every trader starts off on a simulator, most do well.  I am not for or against simulating trading, it is important. When smacking up against the reality of real money it is important to retrain yourself from the sim mindset.   It is nice to lob up half court shots all day but it onlyContinue Reading

I do not write a 13 page report after a loss.

Normally I would not take the time to read about someone taking a loss on a trade. I am pretty good at it, if I wasn’t, I wouldn’t survive. But when I saw it was 13 pages I figured it was a good lesson or good comedy. I am not sure why exactly it wasContinue Reading

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