Tag Archives: uncertainty

It is the participants, stupid.

Joshua Brown wrote today, FIRE IN THE DISCO. Go read it if you haven’t, I’ll wait. Welcome back.  I am by no means a fundamental analysis but what I do know is that participation matters.  The hard part about any type of analysis is not how people will react.  It is about who is participating.Continue Reading

The power of fear.

Fear is the emotion of survival. Before every game or before the first trade of the day there is always that little bit of uncertainty. That feeling in your stomach. For me it always went away as soon as the first hit or the dink of my first order getting filled. Same is true withContinue Reading

Waiting for the market to make sense.

There seems to be an ever increasing chatter about how the market is going to revert to the mean or it is broken or it is undervalued.  Whatever it is let me remind you of two important ideas that are found in about any book you will ever read around finance and investing. The marketContinue Reading

Why simulating trading is different from live trading.

Every trader starts off on a simulator, most do well.  I am not for or against simulating trading, it is important. When smacking up against the reality of real money it is important to retrain yourself from the sim mindset.   It is nice to lob up half court shots all day but it onlyContinue Reading

As traders, this is what we are certain of about the market or trading.

A few weeks ago I started an open thread, What are you certain about the market or trading? I started with a few of my own: If I do not take it will take from me. You are only as good as your last trade. Rigidity and complacency ends careers. Always get paid for taking risk.Continue Reading

This is the most bullish on the market I have been in awhile.

I am bullish on the market but I do not know where it is going.  To say this break wasn’t needed or even predictable is to ignore the writing on the wall. Fear vs uncertainty NFP came out really awful.  The market sold off (and then popped). But it starts the healing process and that isContinue Reading

Too bearish to fail.

I will admit the equity index has not provided the easiest look lately.  Call it rotation, call it uncertainty, call it certainty.  The 800lbs gorilla in the room known as QE , is continuing to eat on the souls of the short sellers that do not cover. I have been saying for awhile that a rally healsContinue Reading

When news and technicals collide we have days like this.

On Friday I wrote a post asking when was the last time news matter?  Later in that day Anthony Crudele (DELI) wrote a post about how he saw the S&P 500 at a critical point.  That post was an extension of  post he wrote “Is the VIX signaling a correction?“. We argued a little bitContinue Reading

The services and materials provided should not to be interpreted as investment advice, an endorsement of any security, commodity, future, or personal investment advice, or an offer to buy, sell, hold or trade futures, options or commodity interests or a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or trade futures, options or commodity interests. You assume the entire cost and risk of investing and are solely responsible for any and all gains and losses, financial, emotional, or otherwise, experienced, suffered, or incurred by you.