Trading the odds has always hurt my trading.

I will never tell someone how to trade, if it works for them do it.  But I have always had a problem trading the odds. The last 4 times X has happened the market has done Y.

It never tells the whole story.

It is like looking at a chart and expecting to learn something.  There is no context. You have to dig deeper for that. What if one of those times there was bomb scare or FED meeting or a Tuesday.

Too likely to manipulate the data.

Data can be easily manipulated to say what ever you want it to.  Confirmation bias will go unchecked if I only looked at one piece of information.

Predictability.

The probability decreases as it continues without knowing what is happening behind the data.  The many factors have to continue to align every time X is created.  By the time a pattern is recognized it can be too late.

Like I said, if it works for you, it works for you.  It could be that I am missing something.

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2 Responses to Trading the odds has always hurt my trading.

  1. […] When ‘trading with the odds‘ doesn’t make sense.  (Trader Habits) […]

  2. wise guy says:

    If trading with the odds doesn’t work for you, then maybe you should try trading against the odds.

    Maybe that will work better.

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